More than 50,000 lives will have been saved by the year 2010 in California because of statewide tobacco control policies. That's according to a new study that also estimates smoking rates among Californians dropped by 25 percent due to high

"In the year 2010 alone over 5,000 lives will be saved as a result of the California Tobacco Control Program," said study author David Levy, Ph.D., a senior research scientist at PIRE Public Services Research Institute. "As the first state to successfully initiate a comprehensive plan to 'denormalize' tobacco, California serves as a benchmark for other states." In 1988, voters passed Prop. 99 that increased cigarette taxes by 25 cents per pack and one quarter of that revenue increase paid for the California Tobacco Control Program (CTCP). The program was initially directed at increasing smoking cessation, but later targeted its efforts at reducing exposure to environmental smoke, reducing youth access to cigarettes, and countering pro-tobacco messages. The specific CTCP elements included a statewide mass media campaign, competitive grants program, school-based prevention and cessation programs, community programs and coalitions, health care provider education, restrictions on marketing, and clean indoor air law. "Tobacco control policies implemented as comprehensive tobacco control strategies undoubtedly saves lives. They have significantly impacted smoking rates," Dr. Levy said. "Further tax increases should lead to more lives saved, and additional policies may continue to reduce smoking rates, and consequently reduce smoking-related health problems in the population." The study estimates the change in adult smoking rates and smoking-related deaths with these new policies in place individually and as a group after controlling for other trends. The research is based on SimSmoke, a computer simulation of tobacco control policy effects developed by Dr. Levy that can be programmed for use in countries and states. SimSmoke projects smoking trends over time, and traces the impact of tobacco control policies and smoking habits on death rates. Dr. Levy has a PhD in economics from U.C.L.A. and is a Senior Research Scientist for PIRE (Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation.) He has published over 100 papers, including articles in the American Economic Review, American Journal of Public Health, JAMA, Medical Care, and Review of Economics and Statistics. He has also written numerous government reports on tobacco control policy, alcohol control policy, and cost outcome analysis. Dr. Levy has been principal investigator of grants from the National Institutes of Alcoholism and Alcohol Abuse, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Robert Wood Johnson Foundation, the Rockefeller Foundation, the World Health Organization. This study was funded by the Tobacco-Related Disease Research Foundation and the National Cancer Institute. Currently, Dr. Levy is working on a grant from the National Cancer Institute that looks at the effect of tobacco control policies on lung cancer rates, and examines the effect of tobacco control policies implemented by various states. Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation

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